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Hello and welcome. My name is Jac and I am a Lecturer at Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre and a Research Fellow at the University of Edinburgh where I work on the ESRC Funded Scottish and Welsh Election Studies.


My research interests focus on political psychology, voting behaviour, national identity, and survey methodology.


On this site, you can find information about me and my research. You can find all of this by scrolling down on this page, or by using the menu. Thanks for visiting!

Awards & Fellowships

( 01 )



The Referendum That Changed a Nation: Scottish Voting Behaviour 2014-2019 (2022). Palgrave MacMillan

In this book we focus on how the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum has transformed politics in Scotland.


Peer-reviewed articles

Continuity and Change: The 2021 Scottish and Welsh Elections. Regional and Federal Studies (Forthcoming)

A comparative analysis of voting behaviour in Scotland and Wales over time.

Incumbency and Identity: the 2021 Senedd Election. Parliamentary Affairs

Here we provide a review of the 2021 Welsh election, focusing on the importance of national identity in maintaining Labour's 6th consecutive electoral victory. 


Candidate authenticity and the Iowa Democratic Caucus. Electoral Studies

In this  article we look at how perceptions of candidate authenticity influenced preferences at the 2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses.

[pdf] [bibtex]

Progressive home rule? IPPR Progressive Review

In this short article, we lay out some of the lessons that can be drawn from 20 years of devolution in Wales.

[pdf] [bibtex]

Analysing vote choice in a multi-national state: national identity and territorial differentiation in the 2016 Brexit vote. Regional Studies

In this paper we analyse the relationship between relative territorial identity (a novel measure of national identity) and EU Referendum vote using BESIP data.

[pdf] [bibtex]

In this short article, we look at how the issue of independence, not Brexit, remains the key political divide in Scotland. 

[pdf] [bibtex]

Scottish Labour as a case study in party failure: Evidence from the 2019 UK General Election in Scotland. Scottish Affairs

In this article we explore what helps to explain why formerly successful parties fail, identifying explanations that may account for the current electoral fortunes of Labour in Scotland.


Candidate Authenticity: ‘To Thine Own Self Be True'. Political behavior

We propose a survey battery aimed at measuring perceptions of the authenticity of political candidates. Testing our measure using data sets from different countries, we show that the answers to our items load on one latent concept that we call “authenticity”. Furthermore, perceptions of candidate authenticity  are empirically distinguishable from other traits.

[pdf] [bibtex]

A Successful Defence: the 2016 National Assembly for Wales Election. Parliamentary Affairs

In this article we use Welsh Election Study to model party support at the 2016 Welsh election. Results point to continuing importance relevance of factors associated with ‘valence politics’ models.

[pdf] [bibtex]


( 02 )

Working Papers

Disability and Ethnicity in Evaluations of Welfare Deservingness

In this paper we examine whether support for government assistance towards disabled people is conditional on perceived responsibility and ethnicity.

Co-author: J. Thorp

Democratic accountability in a crisis: Analysing evaluations of government response to COVID-19 in a multi-nation state. Under Review

In this paper we look at whether being negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic influences evaluations of incumbent performance. (PDF here)

Co-author: J. Griffiths

Strategic Split-Ticket Voting in Scotland and Wales. Under Review

This paper looks at whether horizontal split-ticket voting in devolved elections can be considered 'strategic' or whether it is caused by confusion with the electoral system

Territorial Identity and Differential Voting. Under Review

In this paper I show that differential voting in multilevel states is heavily influenced by both territorial identity and partisanship.

Lying politicians, democracy and group identity: Results of a survey experiment. Under Review

Do voters think politicians who lie should be punished? In this paper, we present results from a survey experiment showing that voters' views on punishing deceptive politicians are conditional on their group identity.

Co-authors: R. Wyn Jones, D. Wincott & E. Gareth Poole

When does our national identity change?

In this paper we examine how critical junctures cause individuals to change their national identity. in particular, we focus on the 2014 Scottish independence referendum and the 2016 eu referendum.

Co-authors: D. Wincott

Can Nationalism Inhibit Democratic Accountability? Evidence From Economic Voting in the United Kingdom, Canada and Spain

In this paper we test whether secessionist or nationalist attitudes disrupt the mechanism of economic voting in Scotland, Wales, Catalonia and Quebec.

Co-authors: JF. Daoust


( 03 )

Awards & Fellowships

Political Science Association Early Career Research Best Overall Paper

Received for paper "Disability and Ethnicity in Evaluations of Welfare Deservingness" with Josh Thorp. July 2021

Fulbright Postgraduate All Disciplines Award

Received funding for 9 month research stay at University of Michigan/ Stanford University. Subsequently spent Jan-Sep 2018 as Fulbright Fellow at University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research.

President's Research Scholarship, Cardiff University

Full fees and stipend scholarship to undertake PhD at School of Law and Politics.

Wales Governance Centre Masters Scholarship

Full fees and stipend scholarship for Masters study and research stay at Wales Governance Centre.


( 04 )


Nov '15 - Sep '20

PhD Political Science (Cardiff University)

Sep '14 - Sep '15

MSc ECON Politics and Public Policy (Cardiff University)

Sep '11 - Jun '14

BA (Hons) Politics (University of Essex)

- Best final year essay

- Dean's List

( 05 )



2021-25 Scottish Election Study. Amount:£849,635.

Henderson, A., Johns, R., Carman, C., Hanretty, C., Larner, J. McMillan, F. (2021) ’The 2021 ScottishElection Study’. ESRC Grant Number: ES/V01000X/1


2021 Welsh Election Study. Amount:£622,967.

Wyn Jones, R., Larner, J., Surridge, P., Wincott, D. Poole, E. G. (2021) ’The 2021 Welsh Election Study’.ESRC Grant Number: ES/V009559/1


Welsh Government. Amount: £29,433.

Devine, D., Larner, J., Turnbull-Dugarte, S., Jennings, W. (2020) ‘Implementation of a Single TransferableVoting system for local elections in Wales’ 

2019 Welsh Election Study. Amount:£63,500.

Wyn Jones, R., Wincott, D., Larner, J. Poole, E. G. (2019) ’The 2019 Welsh Election Study’. ESRC Grant Number: ES/T01556X/1.



Blogs (Selection)

( 06 )

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